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Featured Title

Demographic Projection Techniques for Regions and Smaller Areas

A Primer

H. Craig Davis

$27.95 Paperback
Release Date: 1/1/1995
ISBN: 9780774805018

125 Pages

OTHER WAYS TO ORDER

About the Book

The ability to project population trends is of vital importance for anyone involved in planning -- in the public as well as the private sector. This book provides the tools for making such projections and discusses four principal approaches: mathematical extrapolation, comparative methods, cohort survival and migration models.

Following the introductory chapter, which considers the need and uses for population projections, the next two chapters are concerned with mathematical extrapolation techniques, as they are the tools most commonly used to project the size of a population and are also frequently employed in projecting components of one or more of the other three approaches.

In Chapter 3, the author outlines a four-step projection procedure which is used throughout the remainder of the book. Chapter 4 describes how to project population size by comparing the growth pattern of the population under study with that of another population. The next chapter covers one of the most commonly employed techniques of population projection -- the cohort-survival model, which is used not only to project the size of a population but also its composition in terms of age and sex groupings. The final chapter focuses on migration, generally the most volatile component of the basic demographics equation.

Primarily written for courses in planning, this book is also useful for anyone having to make decisions affected by population trends, whether they involve planning for future growth or alerting local decisionmakers to external uncertainties that could have a serious impact on the future of the community.

About the Author(s)

H. Craig Davis is a professor in the Department of Community and Regional Planning at the University of British Columbia and the author of Regional Economic Impact Analysis and Project Evaluation (UBC Press, 1990).

Table of Contents

Preface

1. Introduction
2. Mathematical Extrapolation I
3. Mathematical Extrapolation II
4. Comparative Methods
5. The Cohort-Survival Population Model
6. Migration Models
7. A Final Note

Appendices
A. Linear Regression
B. Logarithms

Notes
Selected Readings
Index

Reviews

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Sample Chapter

A sample chapter of this title is not available at this time. For further information, please email info@ubcpress.ubc.ca.